Latest on Bills stadium demands: Time keeps on slipping, into the future

Ron Raccuia, executive vice president at Pegula Sports and Entertainment, the company that manages the Pegulas’ holdings, which also include the National Hockey League’s Buffalo Sabres, was precise if not illuminating in his response when asked whether the owners’ meetings are considered a key date in the Pegula negotiation timeline.

“The NFL calendar as a whole is very important to our stadium discussions, and have always been that way,” he said, suggesting that includes the full league meetings, which happen again March 27-30 in Florida, as well as committee meetings and other key events where owners gather.

“Not illuminating”: You betcha! “Precise”: Umm, not really. News: Hardly.

Gov. Kathy Hochul is finishing the term of recently resigned former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, which ends in less than 15 months, and running for a full four-year term in 2022. That is also an election year for the state Assembly and Senate. That means 2022 is going to be a politically complicated year to be considering a major stadium project with significant public funding, which is what the Pegulas are seeking.

Yes, it’s “politically complicated” to pass a stadium deal in an election year, but that cuts both ways: Hochul could be afraid of angering voters by being seen as masterminding a giveaway, or could want to wrap up a Bills deal to show she can Get Stuff Done and has Leadership Skills. The News article is so uncommitted to this conclusion, anyway, that it cuts right in the middle of the paragraph to discussing how smaller markets tend to put up a larger share of stadium costs, which makes sense as 1) as I told a different reporter for the paper last week, smaller cities are easier to shake down for funds because they’re more afraid of move threats since they’re more susceptible to threats of becoming a “cold Omaha” if a team leaves; 2) the numbers for the bigger cities are skewed by the occasional deal where a city holds firm and the local team owner decides that they can earn it back themselves on things like naming rights and PSL fees (see: San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Chargers, New York Giants and Jets). News (yes/no): It’s analysis, kind of, but it shouldn’t be news to anyone that there are state elections next year.

Buffalo is the second-smallest market not only in the NFL, but in all four major league sports.

Stop the presses! But true. (Green Bay is #1, Memphis #3.)

The Pegula team has not publicly stated a percentage of costs it – and likely by extension, the NFL and its owners – expect public funds to cover. But those figures suggest it will be a significant portion of the $1.4 billion stadium they are seeking.

Now you’re just guessing! Also, that’s been guessed before already.

Hochul has offered no insights publicly on her willingness to allocate hundreds of millions, or even $1 billion or more, to a Bills stadium project. But if she does, it will evoke significant opposition, especially from the left, with accusations of corporate welfare. But not doing it would equate to inviting the Bills and NFL to look at relocation options, which is a politically difficult position for the Buffalo-born governor.

Not sure the left are the only ones who criticize corporate welfare, but sure, that’s the calibration Hochul needs to do: How much public money will it take to keep Kim and Terry Pegula from seriously threatening to move the team to, say, Greensboro, and is there a number that will both keep them (and Bills fans) happy and not piss off taxpayers (including Bills fans)? Or, alternatively, is there a way to sell the project to voters as “job creation” and not have the chickens come home to roost until she’s about to be forced out of office anyway in a cloud of scandal?

Something not addressed in this article, or in the previous one, though I did bring it up to that reporter: How to determine whether a move threat is a bluff. The normal kneejerk reaction — almost certainly yes — doesn’t apply quite as much to NFL teams, which, thanks to getting a cut of NFL TV revenues even if they play in Omaha, means market size isn’t nearly as much of an obstacle to teams moving in that league, which is why seven out of the last 12 Big Four sports teams to relocate have been NFL teams.

That said, the Pegulas have a rabid fan base in Buffalo, thanks in part to being one of only two fish in a small pond, and the other fish is the Sabres, who they also own, so it would be awkward for them to move the Bills while still having to sell hockey tickets to people who would want to burn them in effigy. Clearly the ideal solution for the Pegulas is to get a lucrative deal to stay right where they want to, but getting the most lucrative deal depends on elected officials believing that they’ll leave without one. Hochul isn’t the only one having to navigate complicated political calculus.

“Our football team has to play someplace at the conclusion of our lease,” Raccuia told WBEN radio earlier this month. “And we’ve been pretty straightforward with everybody to say: Until we can get a semblance of a deal and an understanding that we’re going to work towards a new stadium, we just can’t extend the current lease. It does no one any good.”

Again with the recycled old quotes. Also, that’s just the two-minute warning, topped off with the “we’ll have to play in the street!” plea, which isn’t actually true since lease extensions can and do happen, especially with a team that has no other immediate options. (Greensboro doesn’t even have an NFL-sized stadium!)

[Sports executive and developer Larry Quinn] noted that interest rates are low and federal infrastructure dollars are flowing heavily, which means “you don’t have the pressure of building a stadium, but not building roads or hospitals.”

That’s not really how budgets work — diverting tax money for a stadium project always diverts it away from something — but it’s a fair bet that one argument for spending public money on the Bills will be that some of it will be covered by the feds, whether directly or indirectly. That may anger taxpayers in Phoenix who won’t be happy with paying their tax dollars to enrich the Bills owners, but taxpayers in Phoenix don’t vote in New York state elections, now do they?

The upcoming owners meetings are the first ones held in-person since the pandemic, and there’s plenty of catching up to do over dinners, drinks and during breaks. “They talk about family,” Ganis said. “They talk about the league. They talk about their teams. They talk about politics.”

Now you’re just vamping to fill space. Is this article over yet?

The NFL, which had $16 billion in revenues in 2019, according to SportsBusiness Journal – and dropped to $12 billion during the pandemic-stifled 2020 season – is highly profitable for its owners. That comfort makes them unlikely to want to move the Bills – unless, Ganis said, prompted to think in that direction.

Definitely one of those two! I hope this has been edifying, and look forward to next weekend’s Bills non-news drop.