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November 04, 2010
Does Giants' win affect San Jose A's calculus?
"Experts: Giants' World Series success could boost chances for A's move to San Jose" was the headline in yesterday's San Jose Mercury News. It's certainly a provocative premise: How, exactly, would the Giants' on-field success affect the long-running off-field soap opera around A's owner Lew Wolff's attempts to relocate, and Giants' ownership's insistance that they won't give up the South Bay rights they got from the A's two decades ago without a fight, or at least a substantial cash settlement?
Unfortunately, the promised "experts" turn out to be a single expert who actually espouses the promised point of view. And who is that masked man?
"To the extent that the commissioner's office would be concerned about the Giants' financial well-being if the A's were allowed to move to San Jose," said Andrew Zimbalist, a Smith College economist and baseball expert, "that concern would by allayed given the success the Giants have had."
Zimbalist estimates the Giants will net from $13 million to $16 million from their share of ticket sales and concessions for the postseason and World Series.
"The owners want (a team) to be as economically successful as it can be," said Zimbalist of the A's proposed move.
"And I think fundamentally that is what Selig is looking at -- if he thinks it's a plus economically."
Zimbalist actually has some props in this department — he wrote a whole book about Selig, after all — so I'd be inclined to think he knows what he's talking about. That said, it's a fairly bizarre argument: The issue in the San Jose move is over what marginal revenue loss there would be to the Giants as the result of an A's move, and that doesn't change regardless of whether the Giants are filthy rich or desperately poor — if the A's relocation would cost the Giants (pulling a number out of the air) $5 million a year, that's still $5 million a year. Moreover, it would be weird for MLB to make a long-term decision based on a one-year income bump from the Series win, unless Selig thinks that Edgar Renteria is going to do this every year.
The article also notes that the A's relocation committee report that Selig commissioned 20 months ago is likely to be performing "an analysis of what kind of fan base shift might occur should the A's move to San Jose." Actually, it's pretty likely that that analysis is long since done — Zimbalist himself did one for the New Jersey Nets' move to Brooklyn in a third the time, though admittedly he took some shortcuts — but it won't be released until the Giants and A's owners have negotiated an acceptable settlement behind closed doors. Maybe it'd help if Wolff agrees to start wearing bowties.
It baffles me why the Giants are worried about a shift in fan base. As someone who grew up in the South Bay and talks to the Giants bread and butter regularly, they've got nothing to fear. The A's could be playing in most of these folks backyards and they'd still pay to go up to SF to see the Giants. And the Giants of course ignore they've spent the last 11 years sucking up the causal fans from all around the bay, north, east, south and the peninsula (including in Oakland and the heart of the east bay which is supposedly A's territory). If I had to guess you'll see even more evidence of this next season. I'm guessing the A's attendance will be even lower next season. To say nothing of the Giants being the closer central option now for anyone North, East and Northeast if the A's move.
Posted by Dan on November 4, 2010 12:27 PM
If that's true, though, then why would the A's want to move to San Jose? To pay for a new stadium, they'd need a huge new influx of fans. If you don't think it would come at the Giants' expense, where would it come from?
Posted by Neil on November 4, 2010 12:36 PM
It'll come from some of the more casual fans most likely. The kind that very rarely make the 50 or more mile trek up to Oakland or San Francisco now, and of course from the A's current "hard core" fan base.
Posted by Dan on November 4, 2010 12:53 PM
Well, the hard core fan base is already going to games now, so that's not an increase. So for that to work, the total number of casual South Bay fans who'd be newly turned on to baseball would have to exceed the number of East Bay fans who wouldn't bother making the trek west to SF or south to SJ, by an amount great enough to provide about $30 million a year in new revenues to pay off the stadium, plus whatever Wolff is seeking in profits/increased payroll.
Not saying it's impossible, but I can see why the Giants would at least be worried. Especially since unless Selig cracks the whip, they have nothing to lose by standing pat.
Posted by Neil on November 4, 2010 01:05 PM
nothing will happen until bud the manipulator has the votes lined up by the other owners and lew-lew gets shaken down by the bow tie.
presumptuous newspaper articles are just another manifestation of the sj "we matter!" mentality born out of their civic inferiority complex.
Paul, can't really blame them for having an inferiority complex. They're constantly being told they're constantly being told they're inferior by the smaller city to the north and that they're not important enough to have their own major league team (even though they're bigger than most cities that currently play host to MLB teams).
Posted by Dan on November 4, 2010 02:23 PM
@Neil- San Jose and San Francisco are not that close in proximity (50-60 miles apart).
Building a new ballpark in Oakland makes zero sense and it will be 7-10 miles from ATT Park in SF. While if the A's move to San Jose they will be much further away from what Forbes.com has as the best ballpark in MLB.
The fans in the south bay will come out in herds for the A's if they are based in San Jose. That plus the flush corporate base will make it easy for the A's to sell out on the regular.
I have been a Giants fan for 20 years in San Jose and it is too far for me to get season tickets to the Giants. By the time I get home from a weekday night game it is midnight and I am dead tired from work all day.
If San Jose had the A's I would get season tickets and go to games regularly because now I have at team in my Metro area.
Even though I am a Giants fan first I do root for the A's and this is generally true about most Bay Area baseball fans. They like both teams but ATT Park is so superior to the Oakland Coliseum that it is not even close. Hence the attendance disparity between the teams.
On top of all this the East Bay has never supported the A's in the first place and the Oakland political well has been "poisoned" for years.
San Jose is the best bet for the A's and people in the South Bay will support them in open arms...As long as we do not have to pay $$ from our General Fund.
Posted by Sid on November 4, 2010 02:57 PM
Don't worry essential services are being eliminated to help the taxpayers pay for a new stadium. Does the city really needs the A's to turn the local economy around? If its so important, have the local corporations foot the bill. Bring back the Sabercats....they put San Jose on the map for championship city...lol
Posted by cecil on November 4, 2010 04:39 PM
Cecil, no city services have been or will be impacted by an A's ballpark. Thus far the only money the city has utilized are the redevelopment funds to buy some land. None of those funds would have gone toward city services. If you want to get mad at someone using redevelopment funds get mad at the state of California for siphoning from that same redevelopment fund to try and balance their budget (luckily it can never happen again after Tuesday).
As for the Sabercats, they're already back. They start play again when the 2011 season starts up this winter at the HP Pavilion.
Posted by Dan on November 4, 2010 04:53 PM
So, Sid, if you're currently a Giants fan but would switch to the A's if they came to town, does that support Neukom's argument that having the A's in San Jose would cut into the Giants' fan base? Or are you saying you're currently a Giants fan but never go to games because it's too far? (But you presumably do watch on TV, which is real money via the Giants' cable deal.)
Posted by Neil on November 4, 2010 06:43 PM
Dan,
It's a good thing Santa Clara Taxpayer isn't in here... The San Jose RDA's TIF is siphoning property taxes that are needed for educating North San Jose students attending SCUSD schools.
Money that was promissed by SJ has not been forthcoming...
In essense, taxpayers in the City of Santa Clara are subsidizing SJ students. Not fair.
Posted by santa clara jay on November 4, 2010 08:22 PM
Don't like it kick the SJ students out or sue San Jose to pay. Never understood why school districts were drawn the way they are in this region anyway. The school districts should line up with the cities like it is in most areas of this country.
Posted by Dan on November 4, 2010 08:33 PM
Dan-I agree, the school districts should line up with the city boundaries. As it was explained to me long ago, they don't align because school district boundaries largely follow old ranch boundaries. It's really complicated to get boundaries changed.
The San Jose RDA is creating funding issues for Santa Clara Unified School District, and with the additional development San Jose wants to put into the RDA area, it will create more problems. That's coming up big time this year as San Jose wants to put more residential development in, which means more kids to educate without any funds forthcoming.
So the current school board has voted to put a measure on the ballot which will tax current properties in the San Jose RDA/Santa Clara Unified area $19/year, while new properties will be taxes at $1900/year. Of course the new buildings aren't built yet, so the future owners don't get a vote, and who wouldn't vote to tax their future neighbors at a higher rate. Developers say that this will shut down building residential properties in the San Jose RDA, but the school board says it has no choice-it can't absorb more students without funding for those students. It should be interesting to see how this works out this year. Especially in light of the SJ Mercury News articles on the fiscal crisis San Jose's RDA is in.
Posted by SantaClaraTaxapayer on November 5, 2010 01:07 AM
The A's should move to Sacramento. They have very few fans in the bay area ... most south bay fans are Giants fans, nearly all in the peninsula and north bay are Giants fans and even some in the east bay are Giants fans. The A's "fan base" if that's what you want to call it is in the east bay and they've proven to be fickle at best. They should start over and move to Sacramento where they'd have the whole market to themselves and even keep the few in the east bay they have today. Both teams would be better off.
Posted by dave in sacto on November 5, 2010 11:10 AM
The A's should move to Sacramento. They have very few fans in the bay area ... most south bay fans are Giants fans, nearly all in the peninsula and north bay are Giants fans and even some in the east bay are Giants fans. The A's "fan base" if that's what you want to call it is in the east bay and they've proven to be fickle at best. They should start over and move to Sacramento where they'd have the whole market to themselves and even keep the few in the east bay they have today. Both teams would be better off.
Posted by dave in sacto on November 5, 2010 11:10 AM
Dave, and where to you propose they play in Sacramento since there is currently no venue? Additionally, Sac has been unable to build an NBA arena and is about to lose their only pro team. You think they look like an inviting destination for anyone right now?
SCT, who knows maybe a tax like that will spur them to finally redraw the boundry lines the way they should have been for most of the past half century. Punish SJ so much they leave your school district ;).
Posted by Dan on November 5, 2010 02:54 PM
Dan, and where do you propose they play in San Jose since there is currently no venue? Additionally, SJ has been unable to build a baseball park due to lack of funds as well as something called territorial rights. You think this is an inviting destination for anyone right now?
See how silly you look and have continued to look for some time?
Posted by dave in sacto on November 5, 2010 05:07 PM
Neil,
Zimbalist and Noll are experts! You? Just some blog editor who can't stand being on the wrong side of an argument and who always needs to get in the last word.
Your response to Sid spoke volumes on how you don't know crap about what's going on in the Bay Area re: SJ, A's and Giants.
Why you're so against the A's moving FURTHER from SF to a city of nearly 1.1 million people is beyond me. Oh well, at the end of the day your opinion doesn't really matter on this.
Good day.
Tony, you are a real desparate sounding dude. Have seen some of your posts around and boy it sure looks like you're grasping at straws. Face it, the A's aren't moving to SJ anytime soon. Looks like the guy from Sacto knows what he's talking about.
Posted by Neil on November 9, 2010 01:02 AM
"Looks like the guy from Sacto knows what he's talking about." Only reinforces what I stated about your opinion (11/5).
I did effectively counter point by point what "Sacto" stated, but you decided to delete it. Is this site operating out of North Korea?!
I'm done at this ridiculous site and its bias and censorship; will come back though when the decision is made (for obvious reasons)...CAN'T WAIT!
FYI, Tony, your earlier comment was deleted because it contained a personal attack, against the policies of this site. I sent you an email inviting you to repost it with that line removed, but you didn't do so.
This is probably a good as place as any to note to everyone: Free and open debate about the issues is more than welcome here, but nobody, regardless of political perspective, is allowed to call each other names. (That way madness lies, or at least flamewars.)
Finally, the "Neil" who posted about "desperate sounding dude" wasn't me. (I never call the capital of California "Sacto," or the home of the Giants "Frisco," for that matter.) Guess I'll have to start typing out my whole name in the future to avoid confusion...
Posted by Neil on November 10, 2010 01:53 PM